The Real Employment Statistics - Know thy Survey
- Details
- Created: Saturday, 06 October 2012 13:41
- Published: Saturday, 06 October 2012 14:07
- Written by Ax D. WhiteMan
Yesterday we were treated to the news that the U.S. economy had created 114,000 jobs and the unemployment rate miraculously dropped to 7.8%. Many have tried to reconcile this seemingly conflicting data. I agonize when I here Limbaugh discussing this issue. The explanation is actually rather simple.
The two numbers are based on completely different data. There is no empirical link between the two reports. The "Jobs Report" is based on a survey of employers, and a number of statistical algorithms are applied to the survey results to arrive at the "Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted" The "Unemployment Rate" is based on a totally different set of survey data, to arrive at the "
Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted"
The fall in the rate of "unemployment" is completely unrelated - at least in a statistical survey sense - to the jobs report. Likewise, the "Jobs Report" is unrelated to the the "Total Employment" statistics that we use to compare long term employment trends. In short, the "Jobs Report" is considered to be more useful to identify short term trends, while the "household survey" is considered to be more accurate to show long term trends.
To that end, we'd like to present the current "Household data" in 10 year context, EXACTLY as it appears on the National Bureau of Labor Statistics Web Site.
The dismal truth is, that while the administration is touting a positive trend, the employment picture in the U.S. is showing NO sign of improvement. When one considers the growth in the number of working age Americans, and the fact that median income per worker has fallen almost $4,000.00 per worker - the employment picture in America is weak, and getting weaker.