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One More Election Night 2020 Prediction

Ok, it seems like this election has been ongoing since 2016 - and maybe tonight it will be over - but I don't think so...

At about 10:00 pm EST on election night 2016 it was clear to any objective observer that Donald Trump would be the next President of the United States. But, almost immediately, the campaign to discredit the election began. It began with minor protestations from Clinton, then progressed to a campaign to sway electors, then an extended Mueller investigation, then an impeachment, then to the Covid Crisis and now here we are - election night 2020.

For the past year we've been told by the "wizards of smart" (who continue through this morning of 11/3/2020) that there is virtually no chance that Donald Trump will be re-elected - and those who support Trump are wasting their time and their vote should they choose to support the President. 

But honestly - it just doesn't feel that way. It doesn't feel like a Biden wave.

It feels like Trump.

We've also been told that the winner won't be known for weeks. That doesn't feel right either. 60% of all votes have been cast. By 9:30 EST 99% of Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina votes will have been counted. I think election day/night goes something like this...

Afternoon: Exit Polls are leaked and widely broadcast - especially on Trump hating Drudge Report - Biden by HUGE margins! Up by 18 - 20%!

In response to the leaked exit polls Trump supporters across talk radio and social media call BS and urge Trump supporters to continue to vote.

Early evening: Talking heads on all mainstream media continue to speak of the inevitable landslide for Biden - but with just a crack of a possible window for Trump.

8:00 EST: First returns are reported in from Eastern Time Zone. Media instantly "calls" New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, DC, Delaware, and Vermont for Biden with the Electoral map showing Biden 80 - Trump 0. They will use phrases like, "the route is on" and it looks like a "very good night for Joe Biden." They will post early return totals from Florida showing a HUGE lead for Joe Biden. When about 30% of Florida is in, they will start questioning "Why haven't we called Florida yet?" - all the while knowing that Florida's most conservative populations are in the Central Time Zone and polls are still open. North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Ohio will all be "too close to call" - but early totals will favor Biden. Mention will be made that Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota polls will be closing soon...

9:00 EST: Expect something of a lull. A few more partial returns. West Virginia will be the first state called for Trump. Then it will be noticed that Maine and New Hampshire are still "too close to call" as well as North Carolina and Florida. Vague reference will be made of a "possible electoral path" for the President, noting that the Biden lead in Florida is shrinking and Trump has pulled ahead in North Carolina and Ohio. As the 9:00 hour draws to a close, media pundits confidence will have changed to nervous trepidation as they begin to discuss how Pennsylvania will likely NOT be called tonight, and the West Coast is still locked up for Biden..

10:00 EST: North Carolina is called for Trump. Trump's lead in Ohio is significant and growing. Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota are all in virtual dead heats. Approximately 10:30 Fox calls Florida and Ohio for Trump. All other media outlets delay on Ohio / Florida - but join Fox in calling all of the Trump stronghold states like Oklahoma and Arkansas for Trump with the addition of Iowa. Now it's electoral advantage for Trump, and the vote count in Pennsylvania has moved into Trumps favor. The Governor of Pennsylvania makes a public proclamation that PA will NOT be called tonight and they will be counting votes for AT LEAST 3 more days. 

11:00 EST: Chaos. Riots have broken out in several cities. Trump has won Georgia, Florida, and has taken a commanding electoral lead. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota all lean heavily in favor of the President. Michigan and Wisconsin are called for Trump. Early returns from Colorado and New Mexico show Biden significantly under performing.  Choking back tears, (or maybe openly weeping) media pundits admit, it looks bad for Biden, and Trump will likely be re-elected - and that Pennsylvania won't even matter. When Texas is called for Trump, he has 273 electoral votes with Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado still to close to call. Eventually, Trump will prevail in 3 of those 5 states. 

For the record, my final call: Trump 315 - Biden 223

Of course, it doesn't end there. It only begins the next 4 years of attempting to discredit the results of this election. Time will tell if any more people are fooled than last time.

In the end, this is all just speculation, and it could turn out horribly for Republicans. My biggest singular hope is that the count is honest and that there is a high degree of confidence in the results. 

If Trump loses, the movement that began with the Tea Party won't go away - we'll just become "the resistance" again - and fight a bit harder this time.

 Next Morning Grading...

What did I get wrong?

Easy answer - Everything. There was little or no Trump turnout in the Western States, AZ, NM, NV. There was no Trump support in MN. Apparently they are happy with their Democrat riots and defunding the police. The support Trump gained in WI, MI, PA, while far in excess of what polls predicted will not be enough to overcome the embarrassingly transparent fraudulent vote counting.  Yes, the votes are still being "counted" - but it's an open farce. This is the same playbook the Democrats (hereinafter known as the Cheatocrats) used to oust Norm Coleman in Minnesota and several other instances. The Cheatocrats stopped vote counting in 7 states when it was apparent that there weren't enough votes on hand to produce the desired results. After about 4 hours, voila, the counting continues and Trump's lead disappears.

Is there a way for Trump to win this?

Probably not. Short of having his own stash of bogus ballots to be discovered and counted - this portion of the election is over. Possibly one of the WI, MI, or PA might get called for Trump just to make it seem legit - but probably not. The Cheatocrats aren't going to let it get within one contested state.

What's next?

Some political chaos. The odd realignment of the electorate may continue. Early exit polling indicates working class minorities broke fairly strongly for the President, while suburban white women moved away from the President, ostensibly because they didn't like the way he treated minorities. It seems that the GOP would do well to continue to enhance it's populist positions on trade, foreign wars, and illegal immigration and continue to grow it's base among working class minorities, and let the Cheatocrat party become even more increasingly the party of elitists, woke leftists, and poverty stricken.

But it's hard to say. There will be a segment of the GOP that wants to go back to their comfortable positions as the hapless foils who feign political resistance to ever expanding Government totalitarianism advocated by the left. 

For now, it's about reorganizing for the 2022 mid-terms, and planning a strategy for the upcoming hard sprint to the left by the Cheatocrats. Maybe Trump can pull off a miracle, and I hope he puts up a fight - but it's going to mostly for entertainment value. 

On the bright side, now that Donald Trump has lost the election - Covid-19 is cured - right?